Trump's Defeat Playbook Returns in Iran War
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- Trump's documented playbook for defeat—most vividly on display after the 2020 election—includes denial, pressuring subordinates like Georgia's Brad Raffensperger to "find" votes, filing 62 losing lawsuits, and ultimately encouraging the Jan. 6 insurrection before pardoning violent rioters.
- The Iran war faces mounting challenges despite U.S. and IDF success destroying Iran's air defense, naval, and ballistic capabilities, with hopes for a Venezuela-style transition or people's revolution having faded and Iran's political and economic leverage still intact.
- Trump reportedly overrode warnings from Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Dan Caine that U.S. troops could be imperiled by insufficient munitions and allied support, continuing a pattern of sidelining military officers who disagree with him.
- Trump's administration is already enacting elements of the playbook: Trump blamed Iran for a deadly elementary school strike that U.S. investigators attributed to the U.S. military, and FCC Chair Brendan Carr threatened to revoke broadcast licenses over coverage of an Iranian attack on U.S. refueling planes in Saudi Arabia.
- The second Trump administration is missing seasoned first-term voices like Chief of Staff John Kelly and Defense Secretary James Mattis, leaving fewer independent figures to check escalation as insiders fight over how to spin a war that may be spinning out of control.
- The Pentagon's unprecedentedly restrictive and punitive media-access stance, layered onto AI-powered disinformation, risks enabling inflated battle-damage claims, faulty risk assessments, and compromised operational decisions that endanger U.S. service members and Washington's global standing.
Why it matters: U.S. service members and Washington's alliances face heightened risk if Trump pressures military officers into distorted battle-damage assessments and escalatory operations, a pattern he has already begun by overriding Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Caine's warnings about munitions and support. The disappearance of experienced guardrails like Kelly and Mattis means fewer brakes on escalation in a war where, despite military damage to Iran, the country's political system and economic leverage remain stubbornly intact.
