Robinhood CEO: Crypto to Overtake Sports in Prediction Markets — SkimNews
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- Vlad Tenev said crypto-linked contracts are taking a "disproportionate share" of Robinhood's prediction markets and expects sports wagers to fall into the minority "within a few years," calling sports contracts a "wedge" that launched the broader business.
- Robinhood's event-contract revenue surged more than tenfold year-over-year to $156 million in Q2 2026, making prediction markets its fastest-growing business line — even as crypto trading revenue actually fell.
- Robinhood contracts traded 4.7 billion times in August 2026, roughly 15 times the volume from August 2025, with the hub built on Kalshi and its own CFTC-licensed joint venture Rothera with Susquehanna, tested during this year's World Cup.
- Robinhood took minority equity stakes this month in Crypto.com and its prediction-market spinoff OG.com, adding a third clearing partner as competition intensifies from CME, Coinbase, and crypto-native Polymarket.
- Lawmakers have introduced more than 10 bills since January targeting prediction markets, including the PREDICT Act, which would ban members of Congress and senior officials from trading political event contracts.
- Tenev pointed to Robinhood's existing market on the Clarity Act — a bill that would settle which federal regulator polices digital assets — as an example of how prediction markets let users "monetize an idea or an insight."
Why it matters: Robinhood's prediction-markets business grew 10x to $156M in Q2 2026 while its core crypto trading revenue fell, validating Tenev's thesis that event contracts, not direct token trading, are where retail crypto exposure is migrating on his platform. With at least 10 federal bills introduced since January — including the PREDICT Act — the regulatory ceiling is rising at the same moment volume is, meaning the category's biggest growth lever (political and crypto-event contracts) is also its most legally exposed.
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