China Frames Taiwan Force as Last Resort, Not Opportunity
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- Zichen Wang and Peking University professor Jie Dalei argued at a closed-door Hawaii workshop in March that Beijing frames the Taiwan issue around "every possible way" to avoid force, directly contesting the Washington assumption that China is a "tactical predator" waiting for U.S. distraction.
- KMT chair Cheng Li-wun is visiting the mainland April 7–12 at the invitation of Xi Jinping and the CPC Central Committee; a direct meeting with Xi would be the first KMT–CCP leader sit-down in a decade.
- China's 2005 Anti-Secession Law restricts "non-peaceful means" to cases where Taiwan's secession becomes factual or possibilities for peaceful reunification are "completely exhausted," a clause the author says is read in the West as a war blueprint but functions in Beijing as a restraint.
- Cheng Li-wun was a former DPP member who supported Taiwanese independence before joining the KMT in 2005 and serving as spokesperson for then-Chairman Lien Chan's historic "ice-breaking journey" to the mainland — a path her current trip is seen as attempting to replicate.
- Taiwan's DPP commands at most 40% public support and does not hold a legislative majority, a structural fact the author says underwrites Beijing's willingness to be "strategically patient" in hoping for political attitude shifts on the island.
- A 2024 Chicago Council survey found 51% of Americans want the U.S. to encourage Taiwan to maintain the status quo, with only 36% supporting sending U.S. troops in a contingency and 58% opposed to positioning troops where they could enter war with China.
- Donald Trump has said he will visit China in mid-May, and Beijing is hoping he will explicitly express opposition to Taiwanese independence and adopt a more positive posture toward peaceful reunification.
Why it matters: The piece directly challenges Washington's dominant "tactical predator" framing of Beijing, arguing instead that China treats Taiwan force as a reluctant last resort rooted in the Anti-Secession Law's restraint clause. With Trump set to visit China in mid-May and only 36% of Americans backing troop deployment to Taiwan, the widening gap between elite hawkishness and public caution could reshape both the 2028 election debate and U.S. policy calibration toward the strait.
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