Goldman Cuts Brent Forecast to $80, Matching Market
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- Goldman Sachs cut its Q4 2026 Brent forecast from $90 to $80 (an 11% reduction) and trimmed its 2027 average from $80 to $75, a roughly 6% drop, per a Monday note from the bank's commodity research team led by Daan Struyven.
- Goldman now expects Strait of Hormuz exports to normalize to pre-war levels by the end of July — a month earlier than the bank previously assumed — though it acknowledged persistent risks to that timeline, including a history of Trump peace claims that later collapsed.
- Gulf oil flows are already running at approximately 11 million barrels daily, supported by a gradual easing of Strait traffic and rerouting via land-based pipelines and fuel trucks, per Kpler and S&P Global Commodities data.
- U.S. consumers are unlikely to see a major gas-price drop, with AAA reporting a national average of just over $4 per gallon on Tuesday and Goldman's new $80 target sitting essentially where futures already trade.
- Saudi Arabia and the UAE could ramp up production faster than expected to refill depleted commercial stocks in Europe, Asia, and the U.S., creating a meaningful downside risk to Goldman's oil-price assumptions.
- Iran could threaten to close the Strait of Hormuz again if negotiations with the U.S. begin to falter, while mine-clearing, shipper risk aversion, and a new round of strategic stockpiling by importers represent upside risks.
- In a scenario where Strait disruption persists, Brent crude could trade to $130 in late 2026 and average $105 in 2027, Goldman warned.
Why it matters: U.S. drivers paying ~$4/gallon shouldn't expect meaningful relief at the pump — Goldman's new $80 Brent target essentially matches where futures already trade, meaning markets have already priced in the White House-brokered peace deal. The asymmetry is the real story: if the deal collapses and Iran re-threatens the Strait, Brent could spike to $130, a ~65% jump from current levels.
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