SpaceX: $24.6B Short, Sell Call Ahead of First Earnings
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- Glenn Thum of Phillip Securities launched coverage on SpaceX (SPCX) with a Sell rating and $75 price target, days before the company reports its first quarterly results as a public firm
- Short sellers built a $24.6 billion position against SpaceX, with short interest reaching 219.3 million shares — roughly 34% of publicly traded shares — as of July 29, up from 23.3 million shares in mid-June
- SpaceX's first major share lock-up expires August 6, potentially making up to 911.5 million additional shares eligible for trading just days after the earnings report
- SpaceX's AI unit generated $3.2 billion in 2025 revenue but recorded a $6.4 billion operating loss; Thum projects roughly $90 billion in cumulative negative free cash flow through 2030, with major compute agreements expiring by late 2029
- Starlink supplies most of SpaceX's meaningful operating profit, while the dominant launch franchise represented only 22% of 2025 revenue
- Wall Street expects SpaceX to report Q2 revenue near $6.93 billion alongside a $1.55 billion operating loss
Why it matters: With short interest at 34% of public shares and 911.5 million shares potentially flooding the market after Thursday's lock-up expiration, SpaceX stock faces a binary setup: a stronger Starlink margin or credible AI-compute contracts could squeeze the crowd, while weak guidance or post-lock-up insider selling would push Thum's $75 target into range and validate the bearish consensus.
