SpaceX Stock's Real Test Comes in Late July
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- SpaceX priced its June 11 IPO at $135 a share, valuing the company at $75 billion — the biggest IPO ever — before shares jumped about 19% on debut, pushed past $200, and have since pulled back to roughly $185.
- Only about 5% of SpaceX actually trades publicly, with the rest locked up, and a staggered lockup means the first sell window opens within days of the company's first earnings report in late July or early August, letting eligible holders sell up to 20% of their locked shares plus an additional tranche if the stock has traded at least 30% above the $135 offer price (about $175.50).
- SpaceX's prospectus showed roughly $18.7 billion in 2025 revenue (up about a third year-over-year) alongside a net loss of about $4.9 billion, with Starlink contributing $11.4 billion in revenue and $4.4 billion in operating profit while the AI segment created by absorbing xAI in February lost more than $6 billion.
- Musk's own stake stays restricted until next June, and the full 180-day lockup on other early holders doesn't lift until around December, meaning the late-July window is the first and largest near-term jump in available shares.
- SpaceX separately agreed to acquire Cursor maker Anysphere in a $60 billion all-stock deal, adding to the cash demands of funding Starship and the broader AI build-out that the first earnings report will lay bare.
- The author is sitting this one out, saying SpaceX at a roughly $2.4 trillion valuation with no earnings underneath it and billions in annual losses looks overvalued relative to the size and momentum of the underlying business.
Why it matters: A thin public float of just 5% has let SpaceX swing 40%+ in its first week, and the first earnings report will be the first hard data point — Starlink profitability vs. a $6B+ AI drag — while staggered lockups release new supply right alongside it, meaning the first real test of whether the $2.4 trillion valuation holds comes within weeks, not months.
