SpaceX Earnings Test as Shorts Hit $24.6B, Analyst Says Sell
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- SpaceX is due to report its first quarterly results as a public company on Tuesday, with Wall Street expecting revenue near $6.93 billion and a $1.55 billion operating loss.
- Short interest in SpaceX reached 219.3 million shares — roughly 34% of publicly traded shares — as of July 29, expanding from just 23.3 million in mid-June and totaling a $24.6 billion bet against the stock.
- Phillip Securities analyst Glenn Thum launched coverage with a Sell rating and $75 price target, arguing that SpaceX's AI unit posted $3.2 billion in 2025 revenue but a $6.4 billion operating loss and that the company faces roughly $90 billion in cumulative negative free cash flow through 2030.
- Starlink supplies most of SpaceX's meaningful operating profit, while the dominant launch franchise represented only 22% of 2025 revenue and Starship is not expected to become a major valuation driver until it demonstrates orbital delivery.
- Up to 911.5 million additional shares could become eligible for trading when SpaceX's first lock-up expires on Thursday, August 6, creating a potential supply shock shortly after the earnings print.
- Thum warned that major AI compute agreements expire by late 2029, meaning the segment carrying SpaceX's valuation premium is also the one with the weakest near-term earnings profile.
Why it matters: With 34% of public shares already sold short and a Thursday lock-up poised to unlock 911.5 million more shares, SpaceX's Tuesday earnings become a binary catalyst: a credible Starship timeline or strong Starlink margins could squeeze shorts, while weak guidance or heavy insider selling would validate Thum's $75 target — nearly half the current trading range — and deepen the stock's slide.
