UCL Quarters Ranked by Upset Potential
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- CBS Sports ranked the four UCL quarterfinal matchups by upset potential, slotting Arsenal-Sporting Lisbon as the least likely upset and Barcelona-Atletico Madrid as the most likely
- Arsenal face Sporting Lisbon on April 7 as heavy favorites despite a loss to Manchester City in the EFL Cup final and a surprise FA Cup defeat to Southampton, targeting a second straight semifinal berth
- Paris Saint-Germain are favored over Liverpool on April 8 as reigning champions coming off an 8-2 aggregate demolition of Chelsea, while Liverpool have just one win in their last five and were thumped 4-0 by Man City in the FA Cup
- Bayern Munich are favored over Real Madrid in the April 7 headliner, sitting one goal shy of the Bundesliga's single-season goalscoring record and having eliminated Man City 5-1 on aggregate in the round of 16
- Barcelona enter April 8 seven points clear atop La Liga but will be without Raphinha (hamstring) for both legs — his absence drops their win percentage from 85.2% to 58.3%, per the article, giving Atletico a concrete opening behind an in-form Julian Alvarez
- First legs run April 7-8 at 3 p.m. ET on Paramount+, with the final set for May 31 at Budapest's Puskas Arena
Why it matters: The piece reframes Real Madrid and Liverpool — two of Europe's most decorated clubs — as quarterfinal underdogs, but the most volatile tie is Barcelona-Atletico, where Raphinha's hamstring injury drops Barca's win rate from 85.2% to 58.3%. That single statistical swing is what makes the upset pick defensible and gives Atletico and Julian Alvarez a tangible path to the semifinals.
