Week 1 bowl projections: Which teams could we see play in the postseason? — SkimNews
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- ESPN analysts Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach released their initial 2025-26 bowl and College Football Playoff projections, and they will update them weekly until selection day on Sunday, Dec. 6.
- LSU opened the Lane Kiffin era with a 51-10 rout of Clemson, vaulting into the playoff quarterfinals in this week's projections after the Tigers' dominant Week 1 win.
- UMass snapped a 16-game losing streak with a 37-21 victory over Rutgers, earning a spot in Schlabach's bowl slate against Louisiana in the Salute to Veterans Bowl.
- The new 12-team CFP format grants automatic bids to Power 4 conference champions plus the highest-ranked Group of 6 team, with Notre Dame guaranteed a spot if it finishes in the top 12 and the top four seeds earning first-round byes.
- Bonagura projects Ohio State as the No. 1 seed facing No. 2 Notre Dame in the CFP National Championship at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Monday, Jan. 25, while Schlabach pairs No. 1 Ohio State against No. 2 Georgia in the title game.
- The two analysts diverge on the first-round games — Bonagura slots Boise State at No. 5 Georgia and BYU at No. 6 LSU, while Schlabach sends North Dakota State to No. 5 Oregon and Oklahoma to No. 6 Indiana.
- Bowl season runs from the Cricket Celebration Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Saturday, Dec. 12, through the CFP National Championship at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Monday, Jan. 25.
Why it matters: These Week 1 projections are the first snapshot of a revamped 12-team CFP that hands automatic bids to Power 4 conference champions and the top Group of 6 team — meaning Week 1 results like LSU's 51-10 demolition of Clemson can single-handedly move a team into the playoff quarterfinals before October. With Ohio State as the consensus No. 1 seed across both analysts' brackets, the Buckeyes are the early favorite, though Bonagura and Schlabach disagree on five of the eight first-round matchups.
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