2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship odds, picks: Surprising predictions by model that's nailed 17 majors
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- Scottie Scheffler opens as the +480 favorite at FanDuel, with Rory McIlroy (+1300), Xander Schauffele (+1800) and Tommy Fleetwood (+2000) next on the board; Scheffler and McIlroy are paired for a 9:30 a.m. ET start.
- The 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship is a no-cut event for the top 70 in the FedEx Cup standings, with the top 50 advancing to the BMW Championship, a $20 million purse and points quadrupled versus standard PGA Tour events.
- SportsLine's model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has nailed 17 majors entering the weekend including the 2026 Masters (its fifth straight), last year's PGA Championship and last year's Open Championship, per the article.
- The model surprisingly projects Xander Schauffele (+1800) outside the top 10, noting he is winless on the 2026 PGA Tour and has finished T2 at this event only once in four appearances (the other three outside the top 20).
- Sam Burns (+2000) is the model's top-3 pick, backed by T7-or-better finishes at the Masters, Memorial, U.S. Open and Open Championship, a 12th-ranked strokes-gained: total mark and third-ranked strokes-gained: putting, both cited as strong fits for TPC Southwind.
- The model is also targeting a longshot at +3000 or higher to make a strong run up the leaderboard, with full picks locked behind the SportsLine paywall.
- Rounding out the notable odds: Tommy Fleetwood (+2000), Cameron Young (+2200), Sam Burns (+2200), Collin Morikawa (+2500), Hideki Matsuyama (+2500) and Ludvig Åberg (+2700) trail the favorites.
- The Aldrich Potgieter and Patrick Rodgers end of the board stretches to +50000 and +75000 respectively, the longest odds in the 70-player field.
Why it matters: Because FedEx Cup points are quadrupled at this no-cut event, a single strong finish can vault players into the top 50 and keep them alive for the BMW Championship — meaning the model's contrarian fade of Schauffele and endorsement of Sam Burns target the exact tier of players whose playoff fate hinges most on this week.
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