CFTC Probes Prediction Market 'Mention Markets' as Kalshi Faces State
Get the Finance newsletter
Daily finance — markets, central banks, M&A, the prints that move money. Free.
- CFTC is conducting an internal review of "mention markets" on prediction platforms and first alerted Kalshi several weeks ago, prompting Kalshi to remove sports-related mention markets (per NPR).
- Kalshi mention markets generated about $3.3 million in trading volume last month, far behind crypto-focused markets on the platform, per Dune Analytics.
- CFTC investigated a former teleprompter operator for President Donald Trump who allegedly made $90,000 on Kalshi betting on the content of Trump's speeches, the agency said in July.
- Kalshi head of market operations Arjun Sawai defended mention markets in a public letter, arguing they only add a "marginal, regulated, transparent, position-limited, surveilled increment" to existing manipulation incentives.
- CFTC's Innovation Advisory Committee is set to meet Aug. 20 to discuss prediction markets, artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency.
- Washington state judge issued an order Thursday blocking Kalshi markets including mention, sports, elections and other categories, making Washington the fourth state to block Kalshi alongside Michigan, Nevada and Massachusetts; a Minnesota federal judge overturned a potential ban last month.
- Polymarket was cut off from JPMorgan financial services last October over government regulation concerns according to the Financial Times, though a Polymarket spokesperson told CNBC it "maintains a close, active relationship" with the bank across multiple entities.
Why it matters: Mention-market scrutiny intensifies as the CFTC pursues multiple enforcement vectors — nine state lawsuits to defend its jurisdiction plus this new review — while individual states keep blocking Kalshi markets. For Kalshi, losing sports and mention products in four states plus a federal probe means core revenue categories could vanish; for Polymarket, the JPMorgan-cutdown FT report (which the company disputes) signals that mainstream bank relationships remain fragile even for CFTC-regulated venues.
Ask SkimNews
