Carney Confirms Canada Is War Gaming a US Invasion — SkimNews
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- Mark Carney told the New York Times Canada is preparing for a US invasion, calling the scenario 'highly improbable' but framing it as 'just risk management' as the US-Canada relationship is redefined under Trump.
- Donald Trump said in 2025 it was 'highly unlikely' the US would use force against Canada, preferring economic pressure; the White House told the BBC that Trump 'has done more than anyone to protect the great people of Canada.'
- A January Leger poll found over 30% of Canadians believed a US invasion was likely, a surge triggered by the US capture of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela.
- The Canadian military model, reported by the Globe and Mail, projects US forces would overwhelm Canada's strategic positions within a week, forcing a shift to guerilla warfare — the first such plan in roughly a century.
- Lt-Gen Christopher Coates, a 34-year Royal Canadian Air Force veteran, said an attack would likely begin with cyberwarfare rather than an armed assault, given deep NORAD, NATO, and intelligence-sharing ties.
- Matthew Schmidt of the University of New Haven said a US campaign would focus on acquiring Canadian oil and minerals and 'political decapitation,' mirroring the Venezuela operation, and predicted many American officers would resign rather than carry out such an order.
- Canada's defence chief has called for adding up to 300,000 lightly trained citizen soldiers, with Coates noting Canada is now 'playing catch-up' on ground-invasion response planning relative to its NATO allies.
Why it matters: Canada hasn't formally planned for a US assault in a century, yet over 30% of Canadians now consider an invasion likely after the Venezuela operation. The defence chief is calling for up to 300,000 new citizen soldiers, and Canada is publicly playing catch-up on ground-invasion response — a structural reversal in a defense relationship built on shared NORAD and NATO commitments.
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