NFL survivor pool picks, knockout strategy, advice for Week 8, 2026: Fade the Chiefs — SkimNews
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- SportsLine Projection Model enters Week 8 58-51 on top-rated picks dating back to 2024, up more than $5,000 for $100 players, and simulates every NFL game 10,000 times.
- Kansas City Chiefs sit at 5-1 as a 1.5-point, -125 money-line favorite over the 5-2 Denver Broncos at Empower Field on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET, yet the model gives them only a 47% win probability in what it calls a complete 50/50 split; Kansas City won the season opener against Denver 31-10 on Sept. 14.
- Patrick Mahomes has completed 64.9% of his passes for 1,474 yards, nine touchdowns and four interceptions in six starts, while Chiefs running back Kenneth Walker III leads the ground game with 120 carries, 701 yards and six touchdowns but was held to 36 yards on 14 carries at Seattle.
- Bo Nix has completed 59.2% of his passes for 1,271 yards, seven touchdowns and three interceptions for Denver, whose three-game winning streak contrasts with Kansas City's season-opening win over the Broncos.
- Seattle Seahawks knocked out Kansas City 20-3 on Sunday Night Football, the Chiefs' worst performance of the year, after a 17-14 overtime loss to Denver had dropped Seattle to 3-3.
- NFL Week 8 has only 14 games because of four byes, and survivor pools thinned after the 49ers, Jets, Panthers and Texans — each a 10.5-point favorite over the Giants — were knocked out, though Survivor Revival pools give players a second chance.
- Bengals (-11.5) hosting the Titans and the Jaguars (-10) hosting the Colts are the popular matchups for anyone who has yet to use those sides, with both AFC South underdogs judged not to be in a position to pull off an upset; the Patriots (-7) vs. Dolphins, Cowboys (-7) vs. Cardinals and Rams (-6.5) vs. Chargers are other more-than-touchdown spreads, with earlier Week 8 modeling separately backing the Rams.
Why it matters: A 1.5-point favorite at -125 winning only 47% of the model's 10,000 simulations leaves survivor players little margin for error after the 49ers, Jets, Panthers and Texans were knocked out. The alternative pick wins more than 70% of simulations, yet its identity stays behind a SportsLine link.
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