Scientists warn Ireland GWP* could add 9 M t CO₂e
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- 42 scientists issued a statement urging the Irish government to reject the use of GWP* for measuring methane emissions.
- Ireland plans to adopt a “temperature neutrality” target using GWP* for its 2031‑2035 carbon budget, which would permit an additional 9 million tonnes of CO₂‑equivalent emissions.
- New Zealand was the first country to adopt a “no additional warming” target with GWP* in 2025, weakening its methane reduction goal.
- GWP* measures the warming impact of changes in emission rates, but scientists say it enables countries with large existing livestock herds to write off current methane emissions.
- Michael Mann warned that GWP* allows wealthy, high‑emitting nations to keep emissions unchanged, undermining deep methane cuts.
- IPCC currently uses GWP100 to assess cumulative impacts over 100 years, contrasting with GWP* which focuses on short‑term rate changes.
- Methane accounts for roughly one‑third of global warming, with concentrations now about 2.5 times pre‑industrial levels.
Why it matters: Ireland would gain a looser carbon budget, effectively permitting emissions equivalent to burning 20 million barrels of oil, while the climate community loses a crucial lever for rapid warming mitigation; the move also favors wealthy, high‑emitting nations at the expense of developing countries.
