Oil Drops as Russian Diesel Deal Meets Houthi Strike — SkimNews
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- Brent crude fell 1.49% to $105.06/barrel and WTI dropped 1.86% to $92/barrel on Tuesday as investors parsed opposing supply-and-conflict signals.
- Trump defended his administration's six-month deal to ease Russian diesel restrictions via Truth Social, citing EU reliance on Russian energy and brushing off bipartisan criticism that the move undermines Ukraine-war sanctions.
- Goldman Sachs estimated that an additional 800,000 metric tons (~6 million barrels) of Russian diesel would cut wholesale diesel prices in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Europe by just $1-$2/barrel.
- Russian refinery outages climbed 3 million barrels per day year-over-year, capping Moscow's ability to actually increase exports despite the new agreement.
- Global diesel markets remain stretched: U.S. inventories are down 14% year-over-year, visible Chinese stocks fell 11%, and seaborne diesel exports dropped 1.4 million barrels per day (20%) YoY amid seven straight months of declining production.
- Iran-backed Houthis struck King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh on Saturday, killing 12 and injuring more than 300 in a major escalation that limited oil's downside.
Why it matters: Goldman's math undercuts the headline impact of Trump's Russian diesel deal: 800,000 extra metric tons moves the needle only $1-$2/barrel against a backdrop of U.S. diesel inventories down 14% and seaborne exports off 20%. The deal functions as political cover on fuel costs rather than a market fix, while the Houthi strike on Riyadh shows the Middle East risk premium hasn't gone away.
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