Miami Leads CFP Bubble Watch at Midseason — SkimNews
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- Miami moved to No. 1 in the latest CFP projection with a 94.8% chance to reach the playoff per ESPN Analytics, fueled by the nation's top scoring offense (48.5 PPG) and No. 7 scoring defense (14 PPG).
- For three straight weeks, a different team has held the top spot in both the AP poll and ESPN's CFP projection — the first time in 14 years that has happened — cycling from Texas to Georgia to Miami.
- BYU ranks No. 1 in ESPN's strength of record metric after beating Notre Dame, but faces a Nov. 7 trip to Utah where FPI gives the Utes a 55.8% chance to win.
- Ohio State catapulted to No. 2 in the projection after edging Indiana on a one-foot out-of-bounds catch, though starting QB Julian Sayin will miss several weeks with an injured right arm.
- UCLA, a year after winning just three games total, is positioned to be 8-0 heading into the first CFP ranking release if it beats Michigan State and Nevada over the next two weeks.
- Georgia fell out of the top four entirely after a home loss to Auburn, though it still holds a 66.3% chance to reach the SEC championship per ESPN Analytics.
- Alabama carries two regular-season losses by mid-October — Bama hasn't lost back-to-back regular-season games since 2007.
Why it matters: A different No. 1 team in three straight weeks for the first time in 14 years leaves the playoff picture unusually volatile heading into decisive late-season matchups like Miami at Notre Dame and BYU at Utah, where outcomes will reshape both conference title races and at-large CFP bids.
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