Miami Takes No. 1 in CFP Projection at Midseason — SkimNews
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- Miami moved to No. 1 in the CFP projection with a 94.8% chance to reach the playoff per ESPN Analytics, powered by the nation's top scoring offense (48.5 PPG) and No. 7 scoring defense (14 PPG); the new No. 1 is the third in three straight weeks, the first time the AP poll has seen that pattern in 14 years.
- BYU vaulted to No. 1 in ESPN's strength of record after beating Notre Dame, setting up a Nov. 7 showdown at Utah where FPI gives the Utes a 55.8% chance to win.
- Ohio State climbed to No. 2 in the projection after edging Indiana, but starting quarterback Julian Sayin will miss several weeks with an injured right arm ahead of a Halloween trip to USC.
- UCLA is undefeated a year after winning three games total, and is on track to be 8-0 entering the first CFP rankings—though starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava is now injured and the Bruins still face trips to Minnesota and Michigan plus a rivalry game against USC.
- Georgia dropped out of the top-four seed positions entirely after losing to Auburn, though the Allstate Playoff Predictor still gives the Bulldogs a 39% chance to finish as a top-four seed, third-best in the FBS behind Ohio State and Miami.
- Alabama sits at two losses by mid-October for the first time since 2007, sharply diminishing its odds of reaching the SEC championship game and leaving the Tide with virtually no margin for error.
- Wake Forest has a 59.6% chance to reach the ACC title game behind Miami, boosted by four road wins against Power 4 opponents and a strength-of-record ranking (No. 11) ahead of Alabama, Utah, and Notre Dame.
Why it matters: For selection committee members, the third straight No. 1 change in three weeks—the first such AP poll streak in 14 years—means almost every Power 4 contender still has a viable path. Alabama's two losses by mid-October mark its first regular-season back-to-back defeats since 2007, and looming committee debates include BYU's No. 1 strength-of-record ranking paired with a weak remaining schedule and Miami's own season-defining Nov. 7 trip to Notre Dame.
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