Model Picks Gainwell Sleeper, Darnold Bust in 2026 Fantasy
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- SportsLine's model released 2026 Fantasy football rankings for PPR and non-PPR leagues after simulating the NFL season 10,000 times, building on a track record that called Daniel Jones as a top-15 QB for 2025, Jonathan Taylor's 2021 monster season, Rachaad White's 2023 breakout, and Isiah Pacheco as a 2025 bust.
- Kenneth Gainwell is the model's top sleeper call at ADP No. 100; coach Todd Bowles labeled him 1B to Bucky Irving's 1A after Gainwell set career highs with 1,023 scrimmage yards, eight touchdowns, and 73 catches in Pittsburgh last year.
- Bhayshul Tuten is flagged as a breakout, now atop the Jaguars' depth chart after Travis Etienne joined the Saints; Tuten posted the fastest 40-yard-dash among running backs in the 2025 draft class and scored in all four games he had at least nine touches as a rookie.
- Sam Darnold is identified as a bust, with the model dropping him from QB14 in 2025 to QB20 for 2026 after he led the NFL with 20 turnovers (six lost fumbles, 14 interceptions) in a Seahawks offense that ranked 29th in pass attempts.
- Josh Allen is being drafted as QB1 despite an ADP of No. 28 overall, while Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, Ja'Marr Chase, Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Jonathan Taylor are the top six picks on average in early 2026 drafts.
- The model is also high on a tight end it ranks inside the top 8 ahead of Travis Kelce and Sam LaPorta, with that player's identity only available at SportsLine.
Why it matters: Fantasy players targeting the late-round Gainwell sleeper (ADP 100) or mid-round Tuten breakout (ADP 57) can gain measurable value over drafters relying on consensus, while Darnold's slide from QB14 to QB20 in the model reflects real statistical red flags — 20 turnovers and a run-first offense — that conventional rankings may underweight.
