Consumer Sentiment Hits Record Low Despite Solid Economy
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- University of Michigan consumer sentiment index hit a record low in its preliminary April 2026 reading — the lowest since consistent data collection began in 1978.
- The Michigan survey data was mostly collected before last week's Iran ceasefire, and the subsequent breakdown of U.S.-Iranian talks is now driving a fresh surge in energy prices.
- A CBS News poll found 63% of Americans rated the economy as "bad" and 65% disapproved of President Trump's handling of it.
- Conventional indicators tell a sharply different story: unemployment at 4.3%, inflation at 3.3% year-over-year, the S&P 500 essentially flat for the year, and GDP rising steadily.
- Gas averaged $4.13 per gallon in April, up from under $3 in February, though still cheaper in real wage-adjusted terms than past peaks.
- Partisan polarization now dominates sentiment: in the April reading, Democrats registered 31.8 while Republicans hit 87.1 — a near-complete inversion of the 66.4/33 split seen in June 2022 at the Biden inflation peak.
- Jared Bernstein, Biden's former top White House economist, warned: "Never try to tell the American people they're better off than they think they are," and cautioned against "tariffs and wars of choice."
Why it matters: The Trump administration now inherits the same confidence crisis that dragged down Biden — 3.3% inflation and 4.3% unemployment are objectively reasonable, yet with gas at $4.13 a gallon and cumulative price pain from earlier inflation still sticky, 63% of Americans call the economy bad. The partisan gap has fully inverted from 2022 (Republicans 87.1 vs. Democrats 31.8), meaning economic mood now tracks political identity as much as lived experience — leaving the White House little clear lever to restore sentiment short of an actual recession, an AI-driven layoff wave, or a deeper energy shock.
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