Oil Jumps Above $111 as Trump Renews Iran Threats
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- Brent crude rose 1.9% to trade above $111 a barrel after Trump renewed threats early Sunday to attack Iranian infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
- Trump followed his threat with a cryptic post reading 'Tuesday, 8:00 P.M. Eastern Time!' with no further explanation, and announced a news conference for 1 p.m. New York time Monday.
- US equity-index futures erased early losses to trade little changed, while Asian stocks edged higher at the open — Japan's Nikkei rose 0.7% and South Korean shares advanced 2%; markets in China and Hong Kong were closed for a public holiday.
- OPEC+ warned that damage to Mideast energy assets will have a prolonged impact on oil supply even after the conflict ends, with few signs of ceasefire progress as attacks continue to flare around the region.
- Iran's attacks damaged Kuwait's oil headquarters and shut down an Emirati petrochemicals plant, while fifteen ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz with Iranian permission, per the semi-official Fars news agency.
- US gasoline pump prices have risen roughly $1 per gallon, with an economist survey projecting the March consumer price index jumped 1% — the most since the post-pandemic inflation surge in 2022 — ahead of Friday's inflation report.
- Lombard Odier strategist Homin Lee cautioned that 'the prediction game remains quite tricky for investors,' noting investor focus is squarely on military actions and Hormuz crossings, and warned Trump's attempt at 'a final round of aggressive strikes can backfire significantly for the markets.'
Why it matters: With Brent above $111 and US pump prices up roughly $1 per gallon, the March CPI print due Friday could force the Federal Reserve's hand on rate cuts — making the gasoline surge a direct policy variable rather than background noise, especially as OPEC+ flags that Middle East supply damage will persist even after fighting stops.
