ESPN Lists 31 Teams as CFP Contenders
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- ESPN Research identified 28 teams with at least a 10% chance to reach this season's 12-team College Football Playoff, and the outlet expanded that list to 31 teams the selection committee could plausibly consider.
- The 12-team format guarantees automatic bids to each Power 4 conference champion, and Notre Dame is locked into the field if it finishes in the top 12 on Selection Day — while the highest-ranked Group of 6 team now gets a bid even without a conference title.
- Five head coaches offered widely varying estimates on how many teams can genuinely contend for the national title: Alabama's Kalen DeBoer said at least 10, Ohio State's Ryan Day said around 15, Texas's Steve Sarkisian said 14 or so, South Carolina's Shane Beamer said 15 to 20, and Oregon's Dan Lanning said 10 to 15.
- Ohio State leads ESPN Analytics with a 75.7% chance to make the CFP and a 17.1% chance to win it all, paired with +600 DraftKings odds, and faces four major road tests including Sept. 12 at Texas and Oct. 31 at USC.
- Texas sits No. 1 on ESPN's subjective list with a 69.9% chance to make the playoff and +750 DraftKings odds, with its Sept. 12 home game against Ohio State positioned as a potential No. 1 seed and résumé-defining win.
- Oregon retained QB Dante Moore and ranks fourth at 64.7% to make the CFP, but avoids Indiana and Penn State this year, meaning it lacks the statement road wins that typically sway the committee.
- Georgia ranks fifth at 63.9% to reach the playoff and is chasing its third straight SEC championship behind what the source calls an elite, national championship-caliber defense led by QB Gunner Stockton.
Why it matters: The 12-team format — up from four — has transformed the playoff from a blue-blood shootout into a wide-open race, but the automatic-bid structure for Power 4 champions means résumé strength still matters more than ever for seeding and first-round byes. With DraftKings already pricing Ohio State (+600) and Texas (+750) as title favorites and the selection committee weighing road wins, schedule strength, and style points, teams like Notre Dame and Oregon must overcome perceived soft schedules to avoid slipping out of bye contention.
