ESPN Ranks 31 CFP Contenders: Ohio State, Texas, Notre Dame Lead
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- ESPN Research identifies 28 teams with at least a 10% chance to reach the College Football Playoff this season, though the outlet's contender list stretches to 31 teams
- Ohio State leads ESPN Analytics with a 75.7% probability of making the CFP and +600 DraftKings odds to win the national title, ahead of Notre Dame (74.4%) and Texas (69.9%)
- The new 12-team CFP format guarantees each Power 4 conference champion an automatic bid, plus Notre Dame if it finishes in the top 12, and this season also awards an automatic spot to the highest-ranked Group of 6 team — even if that team isn't a conference champion
- Coaches disagreed sharply on how deep the contender pool runs: Alabama's Kalen DeBoer said 10, Ohio State's Ryan Day said about 15, Texas's Steve Sarkisian said around 14, South Carolina's Shane Beamer said 15-20, and Oregon's Dan Lanning said 10-15
- Texas hosts Ohio State on Sept. 12 in a Week 2 showdown ESPN projects as a potential No. 1 seed decider, while the Buckeyes' toughest listed test comes Oct. 31 at USC
- Notre Dame's key matchup is Nov. 7 vs. Miami, a rematch of last year's game that helped push the Hurricanes into the playoff field
- Oregon visits Ohio State on Nov. 7 in what ESPN calls a possible Big Ten championship preview, and opens the season at home against Boise State, a Group of 6 contender seeking the new automatic bid
Why it matters: The expanded 12-team format and guaranteed Power 4 champion bids have stretched the pool of legitimate contenders to 28 teams with at least a 10% shot per ESPN Analytics, a dramatic widening from the 4-team era. Power conference automatic qualifiers, Notre Dame's top-12 guarantee, and the new Group of 6 berth now give programs like Boise State defined paths to the playoff, while coaches themselves debate whether only 10 or as many as 20 teams can realistically compete.
