Polls: Iran war tops immigration, crime as voter priority — SkimNews
Get the Geopolitics newsletter
Daily geopolitics — wars, elections, sanctions, the diplomatic moves that move markets. Free.
- Fox News and AP-NORC polls found the Iran war ranks among voters' top four concerns ahead of the economy, government corruption, and healthcare — surpassing immigration and crime, two issues where Trump performed strongly in 2024.
- Fox News found 75% of respondents were extremely (42%) or very (33%) concerned about the war, while AP-NORC found 62% of registered voters named it one of the most important issues and 31% called it important.
- Fox News further found 60% of voters oppose U.S. military action against Iran, and those voters favor Democratic congressional candidates by 56 points.
- Trump's foreign-policy approval hit its lowest point of his second term in both polls — 33% on AP-NORC (across eight surveys) and 35% on Fox (since his return to office).
- Republican candidates in tight Michigan, Maine, and Iowa races have publicly called for a swift end to the war, and leaked Axios audio showed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton blaming the war and gas prices for his Senate campaign's struggles.
- Gas prices and cost-of-living concerns have been driven by Strait of Hormuz energy disruptions, blurring the line between economic and foreign-policy issues in voters' minds.
- Election analysts have compared the 2025 midterms to 2006, when an unpopular Middle East war plus economic frustration produced a Democratic wave of six Senate seats and 31 House seats.
Why it matters: With 60% of voters opposing the Iran war and those voters favoring Democrats by 56 points, Republican incumbents in competitive races face direct electoral pressure to distance themselves from Trump's foreign policy — a dynamic already surfacing in leaked Paxton audio and public statements from candidates like Tom Tiffany.
Ask SkimNews
