US-China Talks Could Make US Enforcer on Taiwan — SkimNews
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- Beijing labeled Taiwan 'the most important issue' in US-China relations after the May summit, warning Washington to exercise 'extra caution,' while the White House did not mention Taiwan in its official readout.
- Washington seeks to prevent multiple crises—including Iran, trade, and technology—from escalating simultaneously, creating openings for Beijing to link restraint on one front to concessions on another.
- Beijing has failed to increase the appeal of 'one country, two systems' in Taiwan, with recent polling showing strong opposition to unification under the Chinese Communist Party.
- The US can influence Taipei more effectively than Beijing can, making American diplomatic pressure a potential tool for Beijing to indirectly constrain Taiwanese initiatives it opposes.
- Historical precedent exists: in 2003, President George W. Bush publicly criticized Taiwan’s Chen Shui-bian over a referendum, demonstrating that US pressure can restrain Taipei when stability concerns arise.
- Taiwan relies heavily on US security support, making it difficult for Taiwanese leaders to ignore American warnings about actions that might destabilize the Strait or complicate broader US strategy.
Why it matters: If the US increasingly delays arms sales or scales back high-level contacts with Taiwan in tandem with Chinese cooperation on Iran or trade, Taipei could face growing constraints without formal agreements—shifting the burden of US-China 'stability' onto its own sovereignty. This pattern would empower Beijing to achieve through Washington what direct coercion cannot.
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