2026 Fantasy Sleepers: Model Tabs LaPorta, DeVonta Smith
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- SportsLine's model simulated the entire NFL season 10,000 times to produce its 2026 Fantasy football rankings, identifying sleepers like Lions TE Sam LaPorta and Eagles WR DeVonta Smith based on expected shifts in offensive role and target share.
- The model correctly predicted Dolphins RB De'Von Achane's 2025 breakout, slotting him as RB6; Achane delivered 1,838 scrimmage yards (sixth in the NFL) and 12 touchdowns, well ahead of his RB12 ADP.
- Sam LaPorta, who set the rookie TE touchdown record in 2023 and averaged a career-high 54.3 receiving yards in 2025, is positioned for more redzone opportunities after David Montgomery's exit — LaPorta averaged 0.7 TDs in six games without Montgomery versus 0.4 in 36 with him.
- DeVonta Smith logged a 1,000-yard season in 2025 despite playing in a bottom-10 passing offense; following A.J. Brown's trade to New England, the model projects Smith as a top-15 Fantasy WR despite an outside-top-25 ADP, drawing a parallel to Jaxon Smith-Njigba's post-Metcalf ascent in Seattle.
- The model's multi-year track record includes calls on Jonathan Taylor's 2021 monster season, Derrick Henry's 2019 emergence, and Daniel Jones' 2025 breakout, lending credibility to its 2026 projections.
- The model also projects a veteran wide receiver as a shocking top-10 Fantasy option ranked ahead of stars like CeeDee Lamb and A.J. Brown — with his identity disclosed only at SportsLine.
Why it matters: Both sleepers hinge on obvious volume shifts the broader market hasn't priced into their ADPs: LaPorta's redzone role expands directly with Montgomery gone, and Smith's target share jumps the moment Brown ships out — gaps that drafters can exploit if they draft before consensus catches up. The model's 10,000-simulation methodology gives a repeatable edge at thin positions (TE, WR2) where one role change can swing a player's weekly ceiling.
