SportsLine Model: Likely, Pollard Among 2026 Sleepers — SkimNews
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- SportsLine's model simulated the 2026 NFL season 10,000 times to release fantasy football rankings, sleepers, breakouts, and busts before Wednesday's Patriots-Seahawks season opener at 8:20 p.m. ET.
- Isaiah Likely, who followed John Harbaugh from the Ravens to the Giants, is flagged as a sleeper at TE9 — ahead of Sam LaPorta and Travis Kelce — despite an ADP of 91, and has reportedly emerged as a favorite target of QB Jaxson Dart with Nabers limited in camp by a knee issue.
- Tony Pollard is highlighted as a sleeper at age 29 after clearing 1,000 rushing yards in four straight seasons and surging late in 2025 (100 yards per game, three total touchdowns in the final five weeks); the model ranks him in the same tier as backs drafted earlier like TreVeyon Henderson and Rico Dowdle despite a pick-78 ADP.
- The model is "extremely high" on an unnamed wide receiver going in the third or fourth round of most drafts, calling them a shocking top-10 option ahead of CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, and A.J. Brown.
- De'Von Achane validated the model last season: called as RB6 while his ADP was RB12, he finished with 1,838 scrimmage yards (sixth in the NFL) and 12 touchdowns.
- The model's historical track record includes flagging A.J. Brown as a 2020 sleeper, Jonathan Taylor's 2021 breakout, Derrick Henry in 2019, Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara in 2018, Davante Adams in 2017, predicting C.J. Stroud's 2024 step-back, and calling Daniel Jones' 2025 breakout.
Why it matters: Fantasy players who target SportsLine's flagged sleepers — Isaiah Likely at TE9, Tony Pollard past pick 78, and a mystery wide receiver ranked above CeeDee Lamb — gain a draft-day edge at below-market cost, per a model that correctly predicted De'Von Achane's 2025 RB6 finish despite an RB12 ADP.
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