S&P 500 on Edge as Iran Conflict and Jobs Report Loom
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- Block announced plans to lay off nearly half its workforce in a "deliberate and bold embrace of AI," sending shares up almost 17% on Friday even as the S&P 500 fell 0.4% and the Dow slid 1.1%.
- The S&P 500 sits less than 2% from its record high but has yet to close above 7,000, with its technology sector down 2.2% on the week and the benchmark up just 0.5% year-to-date in 2026.
- LPL Financial's Adam Turnquist warned that more than 60% of S&P 500 stocks are outperforming the index this year — a 20-year peak — meaning internal market breadth may have little room to support the benchmark if Big Tech keeps struggling.
- The U.S.-Israel attack on Iran over the weekend is already rattling crude markets, with analysts raising the prospect of $100-a-barrel oil and higher gasoline prices heading into spring.
- Ocean Park Asset Management CIO James St. Aubin described a "dystopian narrative" around AI displacing white-collar workers as permeating market psychology, noting that healthcare may be propping up job growth and that job openings are drying up.
- Friday's February jobs report has become the week's key catalyst, arriving as the S&P 500's narrow 0.5% YTD gain hangs in the balance and a weak print could expose cracks beneath the index's near-record level.
Why it matters: The S&P 500 faces a dual test at the 7,000 mark: Iran-driven oil risks and Friday's jobs report converge, while 60% of components already outperform the index — a 20-year peak signaling limited breadth cushion. Block's 17% Friday surge after announcing ~50% AI-driven layoffs crystallizes the split: investors reward cost-cutting while fearing the consumer-spending damage.
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