China Emerges as Asia's Sole Winner from Hormuz Crisis
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- Asia Group report concluded China is the sole winner in Asia from the Strait of Hormuz crisis, triggered when Iran virtually closed the waterway after US-Israel joint strikes on Feb 28 killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei
- China's energy stockpiles reached 104 days of crude import cover as of January, with crude imports growing from 11.1m to 11.6m barrels a day in 2025 and over 80% of the increase going to reserves, per Erica Downs
- China installed 315GW of new solar capacity last year—more than half the world's new solar—with the report noting 1.4 terawatts of operating renewable capacity already online and a 2030 target of 50% non-fossil energy
- China's clean-tech exports surged during the crisis, with EV exports up more than 110% year-on-year in May and solar shipments rising 60% in April as other countries accelerated their own clean energy buildouts
- The pre-crisis stakes were highest for Asia: roughly 80% of oil and nearly 90% of liquefied natural gas transiting the Strait of Hormuz was destined for Asian markets
- Drew Thompson of the S Rajaratnam School flagged a caveat, noting that US loss of credibility is not necessarily a win for Beijing since China does not want to replace Washington as Middle East security provider
- Wen-Ti Sung of the Atlantic Council said the crisis may give Beijing pause about a future military assault on Taiwan by illustrating the difficulty of moving ships through hostile waters
Why it matters: China's 104-day crude reserves and 1.4 terawatts of renewable capacity insulated it from an energy shock that exposed India, Japan, and South Korea to far greater disruption, while Beijing's dominance in solar and EV supply chains means global clean-energy investment now flows through the country most likely to profit from continued US Middle East entanglement.
