Kalshi Odds 52% for Fed Rate Hike After Payroll Surge
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- Kalshi raised the odds of a Fed rate hike this year from 25.3% to 52% after the latest payroll data.
- Bureau of Labor Statistics reported nonfarm payrolls of 172,000, far above the 80,000 forecast.
- Roger Ferguson told CNBC that “inflation is pretty sticky,” suggesting a hike could be warranted.
- CME FedWatch recorded a 50% probability of a rate increase this year.
- Lindsay Rosner of Goldman Sachs said the Fed will likely hold rates for now, focusing on inflation and the war’s duration.
Why it matters: Investors and borrowers will face higher financing costs if the Fed hikes, while traders betting on a hold risk volatility; the odds shift adds pressure on policymakers to balance inflation and employment.
