Gulf States Arm for Offense as Iran War Reshapes Region — SkimNews
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- Western air and missile defenses intercepted roughly 90% of Iranian drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles, but the remaining 10% caused enough physical and psychological damage to shatter Gulf states' economic models built on the expectation of peaceful skies.
- Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain are acquiring offensive drone and missile capabilities, with Saudi Arabia working with U.S. corporations to build thousands of drones and the UAE pursuing drone technology from Israel, China, and Ukraine.
- The United States' failure to achieve regime change in Iran has eliminated a key deterrent, freeing Iran to threaten Gulf economies and throttle Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic without fearing a U.S. bid for overthrow, according to the source.
- The Cold War nuclear balance analogy does not apply to Gulf state and Iranian conventional drone and missile arsenals, the source argues, because the certainty of incalculable damage that made nuclear deterrence work is absent when thousands of cheap conventional munitions are involved.
- Gulf states' acquisition of power projection capabilities for the first time in roughly a century mirrors the 1970s pattern of the U.S.-armed Iranian Shah, who used new military power to back the Kurds against Saddam Hussein and seize Gulf islands from the UAE.
- Iran's hard-line leadership is expected to seek opportunities to demonstrate that Gulf state offensive capabilities are insufficient deterrent, while the U.S. may opt out of Gulf defense to avoid provoking Strait of Hormuz shutdowns, according to the source.
Why it matters: Gulf states are acquiring drones and missiles from Turkey, the U.S., Israel, China, and Ukraine—their first offensive buildout in roughly a century. The source notes the U.S. may opt out of defending the Gulf to avoid Strait of Hormuz retaliation, leaving regional states to manage Iran with conventional arsenals lacking nuclear-style certainty.
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