Apple, Amazon Options Diverge Ahead of Earnings
SkimNews Take
The inverse options positioning reveals traders are already pricing a narrative divergence rather than just two isolated earnings events — meaning even an Apple beat may struggle to buck the directional bias flowing into the print.
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- Apple and Amazon both report after Thursday's close, with prints expected to decide whether the stock market ends a rough week on solid footing; big-tech earnings have been splitting recently, with Microsoft rallying while Meta fell last night, and Alphabet and Tesla declining together the week before.
- Apple is up 25% year to date and has rallied 7% since the S&P 500 peaked on June 2; options are pricing a 3.4% post-earnings move — more than double the 1.5% median move over its past four reports.
- Of Apple's $634 million in Wednesday options premium, more than $470 million was tied to calls, but much of that was calls sold, leaving net trade sentiment slightly bearish per SpotGamma and Barchart; the most-popular contract by volume was 330-strike puts expiring Friday, which need a 3%+ drop to pay off.
- Amazon is flat year to date; despite $615 million in puts-dominant Wednesday premium, traders looked more likely to sell that volatility than buy it, leaving net sentiment positive by about $3 million and 100,000 deltas (Barchart).
- Amazon options imply a 6.6% post-earnings move, versus a 7% median over its past four quarters, per Cboe LiveVol data.
Why it matters: Apple's 3.4% implied earnings move — more than double its 1.5% recent median — shows options desks bracing for turbulence, while bearish net sentiment despite $470 million in call volume creates an unusual tension around the stock's 25% YTD rally. Amazon's flat YTD and net positive put-selling flows point to a less anxious options desk ahead of that print.
