Ukraine Gains as Russia Loses 113 sq km, 35k Troops
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- Russia lost control of roughly 113 sq km of territory in the past month, according to ISW estimates.
- Russia is shedding about 35,000 troops per month, a loss rate that exceeds its recruitment capacity.
- FPV drones now account for up to 80 % of Russian casualties, according to military analysts.
- Ukraine has expanded its deep‑strike capability, using mid‑range drones (50‑300 km) and long‑range systems (up to 2,000 km) to hit Russian infrastructure.
- Ukraine' long‑range drone attacks in March placed up to 70 % of Russia’s population within strike range and forced temporary oil‑production cuts of up to 400,000 bpd.
- Russia’s May 9 Victory Day parade lacked heavy military equipment, signaling growing strain on its armed forces.
- Lawrence Freedman described the current battlefield developments as an “inflection point” that could lead to broader Russian collapse if failures continue.
Why it matters: Ukraine gains tactical advantage and inflicts economic damage, while Russia’s unprecedented manpower losses, territory shrinkage, and a deteriorating killed‑to‑wounded ratio threaten its operational endurance and could trigger broader sectoral collapse. The strain also shows in the May 9 Victory Day parade’s lack of heavy equipment, underscoring Moscow’s dwindling resources and the shifting momentum toward Kyiv.
