Clarity Act's odds of passing plunge as Republicans reject Democrats' counter-proposal — SkimNews
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- Republicans rejected the Democratic counterproposal on the Clarity Act ahead of Tuesday's cloture vote, causing the bill's near-term passage prospects to plunge, according to the article.
- Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) said the Democratic offer looked "identical" to their pre-recess opening position despite Republicans agreeing to nearly all of the Tillis-Gallego ethics framework.
- Polymarket bettors priced the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 at just 14% Tuesday morning, down from roughly 30% 24 hours earlier.
- Kalshi traders pushed the contract for a crypto market structure bill passing before Oct. 1, 2027 down to 36% from ~53% Monday, and gave a 51% chance passage only arrives by Jan. 1, 2028.
- Banking groups and state attorneys general added late pressure: banks urged tighter stablecoin interest/rewards restrictions, while a bipartisan group of state AGs warned the bill could weaken states' ability to police crypto fraud.
- Republicans released what they called a "final draft" over the weekend incorporating more than 100 changes requested by Democrats, including ethics provisions concessions.
- The Senate is scheduled to vote Tuesday afternoon on whether to invoke cloture on the motion to proceed, which requires 60 votes.
Why it matters: The cloture hurdle demands 60 votes, and with both sides publicly accusing each other of bad-faith bargaining — Lummis said Democrats "haven't budged an inch" while the GOP already conceded on ethics — Polymarket's implied passage odds for 2026 fell from ~30% to 14% in roughly 24 hours. The stalemate pushes the first comprehensive U.S. crypto market structure framework out of reach, with Kalshi pricing passage at a 51% chance only by Jan. 1, 2028.
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