Clarity Act's odds of passing plunge as Republicans reject Democrats' counter-proposal — SkimNews
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- Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.), a lead Republican negotiator, said the Democratic counteroffer 'looks identical to their opening position at the start of recess,' accusing Democrats of resubmitting old demands rather than negotiating.
- Polymarket bettors slashed the Clarity Act's 2026 passage odds to 14% Tuesday morning, down from roughly 30% just 24 hours earlier.
- Kalshi traders pushed the timeline for a crypto market structure bill further into the future — the contract for passage before Oct. 1, 2027 fell to 36% from about 53% Monday, while the Jan. 1, 2028 contract climbed to 51%.
- Republicans released what they called their final draft over the weekend after making more than 100 changes requested by Democrats, including conceding to nearly all of the Tillis-Gallego ethics framework.
- Banking groups pressed lawmakers to tighten restrictions on stablecoin interest and rewards, while a bipartisan group of state attorneys general warned the bill could weaken states' ability to police crypto fraud — opposition the source flags beyond the partisan standoff.
- The Senate was scheduled to vote Tuesday afternoon on whether to invoke cloture on the motion to proceed, a procedural hurdle requiring 60 votes.
Why it matters: The Clarity Act is the central vehicle for defining SEC vs. CFTC jurisdiction over digital assets, and the collapse of its 2026 odds from 30% to 14% in a single day means the crypto industry is increasingly looking at 2027 or 2028 — if ever — for a federal market-structure framework, while banking lobbies and state AGs actively work to narrow the bill's stablecoin and fraud-enforcement provisions.
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