Goldman: AI Slows Hiring Most for Entry-Level Workers
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- Goldman Sachs found that industries with greater AI exposure have seen slower job openings growth since the second half of 2022, with the relationship particularly pronounced in Germany, Australia and the U.S.
- Call center employment has fallen 39% below its historical trend in the U.S., 33% below in Canada, and 27% below in Germany — the steepest declines among AI-exposed industries.
- Employment in software publishing, management consulting, and advertising has also fallen sharply below historical trend across developed markets, according to Goldman's Wednesday report.
- Entry-level workers face the strongest AI-related headwinds: a 10% occupational AI exposure was tied to a 0.6+ percentage point drag on annual headcount growth in Australia and over 0.2 percentage point in the U.S., versus just 0.1 percentage point across the broader labor market.
- Goldman analyzed employment growth across more than 800 occupations spanning France, Canada, the U.S. and other developed economies to reach its conclusions.
- AI adoption stands at roughly 15-20% across major developed markets, with France, the U.S., the Netherlands and the U.K. leading; Italy, Japan, and New Zealand sit at the lower end, while major emerging markets lag at 10-15%.
Why it matters: Goldman's cross-country data points to specific, not generalized, AI labor disruption: call center roles in the U.S. are down 39% from trend, and entry-level workers absorb multiple times the hiring drag of the average worker in AI-exposed roles. The 800-occupation analysis names which narrow industries and seniority levels are already seeing AI displacement in the numbers — concrete signal for employers restructuring hiring pipelines and for young workers entering those fields.
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