Kevin Warsh Sworn In as Rate‑Cut Odds Plummet
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- Kalshi shows a 38.2% chance the Fed will cut rates before 2027, down from 96% in February.
- CME FedWatch indicates a 98.8% probability the Fed will keep rates unchanged through June, with >94% chance through July.
- Kevin Warsh is set to be sworn in as Fed chair on Friday, amid Trump’s public calls for immediate rate cuts.
- Senator Elizabeth Warren warned that confirming Warsh could lead to the Fed granting special accounts to the Trump family’s crypto firm or bailouts to Wall Street friends.
- Warsh disclosed over $100 million in assets, including stakes in AI and cryptocurrency companies, raising scrutiny as the CFTC awaits a full commissioner panel amid CLARITY Act rulemaking.
Why it matters: Bond investors face tighter yields as the Fed is almost certain to hold rates through July, while Warsh’s $100 million crypto‑AI portfolio and the looming CLARITY Act rulemaking raise the risk of regulatory capture for the crypto sector.
