Three Keys for McGregor to Upset Holloway at UFC 329
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- UFC 329 headlines Saturday in Las Vegas with the welterweight rematch between Conor McGregor and Max Holloway, 12 years after McGregor won their first meeting in just his second UFC bout.
- Conor McGregor returns from a five-year layoff since his July 2021 leg break against Dustin Poirier, has just one UFC win since 2016, and yet sits as only a +180 underdog.
- Max Holloway is moving up 25 pounds from featherweight (145 lbs) to welterweight (170 lbs), making his performance at the higher weight the fight's biggest question mark.
- Holloway's ground game has been a recurring liability — he's been taken down two or more times in 56% of his UFC losses (vs. 13% of wins), and Charles Oliveira held him on the floor for roughly 21 of 25 minutes in his most recent bout.
- McGregor's 2013 blueprint for beating Holloway used 4 of his 5 career UFC takedowns and 6.5 minutes of ground control in 15 minutes, though McGregor hasn't landed a takedown in 11 fights spanning 12 years.
- Holloway's chin has been cracked by knockout only once in 36 career fights (by Ilia Topuria in 2024), but has never been tested against a welterweight puncher of McGregor's caliber.
Why it matters: McGregor has just one UFC win since 2016 and hasn't fought in five years following a gruesome leg injury, yet sits at only +180 — a gap between star-driven odds and recent form that defines the bout. Holloway jumping 25 pounds to welterweight is the genuinely unknown variable heading into Saturday.
