Kalshi Adds Drug Trial Bets; Merck Pill Wins FDA Nod
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- Kalshi will begin taking bets on Phase 3 clinical trial outcomes and FDA full approval decisions, partnering with AppliedXL, a tech firm that monitors and predicts study results
- The exchange is taking a conservative approach, restricting initial markets to Phase 3 trials run by established drug companies with FDA full approval decisions
- Merck secured FDA approval for Lipfendra, a once-daily pill that lowered LDL cholesterol by up to 60% over six months in adults on statins
- Lipfendra is approved for patients with or at risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, a population facing elevated heart attack and stroke risk
- Analysts project Lipfendra will generate peak annual sales exceeding $5 billion, positioning it as a potential blockbuster for Merck
Why it matters: Kalshi's entry into drug development prediction markets lets traders price biopharma risk in real time, while Merck's Lipfendra becomes the first oral non-statin LDL therapy approved by the FDA, with $5 billion in projected peak sales signaling a major new treatment option for the cardiovascular disease population.
