Texans' first AFC title game shot hinges on Stroud bounce-back
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- CJ Stroud regressed sharply in his second and third seasons, averaging 218.3 yards per game with 20 interceptions after leading the NFL with 273.9 YPG and five INTs as a 2023 rookie
- Stroud holds a dubious distinction as the only QB in history (minimum 40 starts) to drop passing yards per game by at least 50 from Year 1 to Years 2-3 combined
- Stroud set an NFL playoff record with five fumbles in the Wild Card win over Pittsburgh and became the first player ever with five-plus INTs and five-plus fumbles in a single postseason
- The Texans are listed at +110 to repeat as AFC South champions and +850 to reach their first-ever conference title game, with the SportsLine model projecting 10.6 wins, a 49.1% division chance, and a 13.4% shot at the AFC title
- Houston's defense led the NFL at 277.2 yards per game allowed and ranked second in scoring defense (17.4 PPG) a season ago, with pass-rusher Will Anderson Jr. signing a three-year, $150 million extension in the offseason
- The Texans overhauled their offensive line by signing Braden Smith and Wyatt Teller in free agency and drafting Georgia Tech guard Keylan Rutledge 26th overall, while adding RB David Montgomery and welcoming back injured WR Tank Dell
Why it matters: The SportsLine model gives the Texans a 13.4% shot at the AFC title game despite Stroud's historic regression and Houston's status as the only active franchise never to reach one. With Over 9.5 wins taking nearly 90% of tickets and handle at BetMGM, the betting public is essentially wagering on a bounce-back with no NFL precedent.
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