Jaw-Jaw With Belarus, Revisited Amid Ukraine War — SkimNews
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- Michael Kimmage revisited his 2021 essay "Belarus and the Ukraine Trap," noting Belarus became a staging ground for Russia's invasion of Ukraine without triggering direct NATO confrontation.
- Alexander Lukashenko has maintained some distance from the Ukraine war while allowing Russian forces to operate freely on Belarusian territory, where the Russian military is now "dug in and ubiquitous," per Kimmage.
- Kimmage argued the risk of military tensions or outright war in Belarus is greater today than in 2021, specifically in the aftermath of any departure of Lukashenko from power.
- European countries will not challenge a Belarus under tacit Russian control since that arrangement is already the status quo, Kimmage noted, though Lukashenko's domestic-political legitimacy has long been eroding.
- Lukashenko has no discernible vision for Belarus and has alienated it from all neighbors except Russia, a situation Kimmage compared to Ukraine in 2014 before Russia's annexation of Crimea.
Why it matters: Kimmage — who first flagged Belarus as a likely Russia-West flashpoint in 2021 — now judges that risk as higher than when he wrote that piece, because the Russian military is already entrenched on Belarusian soil and the only thing keeping the lid on is Lukashenko's hold on power, which he describes as already eroding. A post-Lukashenko transition becomes the trigger point that could draw Russia and NATO into direct confrontation.
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