Six SEC Teams Projected Into CFP Field — SkimNews
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- SEC holds half of the projected CFP field this week, with six teams — Texas, LSU, Georgia, Ole Miss, Alabama, and Texas A&M — currently in the playoff picture; the Allstate Playoff Predictor gives the conference an 84% chance to send four or more teams, while the Big Ten sits at 16% to send four-plus.
- Texas owns the best win in college football after beating Ohio State and has an 87.7% chance to reach the playoff and a 36.7% chance at the No. 1 seed per ESPN Analytics, which projects the Longhorns to win every remaining game.
- Oklahoma State upset 23.5-point favorite Oregon, racking up 554 total yards and snapping a 12-game losing streak behind QB Drew Mestemaker's 426 yards of total offense — though ESPN's FPI still projects six more losses for the Cowboys.
- Ohio State remains No. 1 in ESPN's FPI by a mere 0.3 points despite losing at Texas, and a three-game stretch from Oct. 17 to Nov. 7 against Indiana, USC and Oregon will decide the Buckeyes' fate.
- Miami leads the ACC with a 50.8% chance to win the conference after outscoring its first two opponents 122-13, but the Hurricanes' soft strength of schedule could cost them a first-round bye even if they run the table.
- Boise State leads the Group of 6 race at 18% to reach the CFP after a home win over Memphis, and would currently bump No. 11 USC from the playoff field — but the Broncos actually benefit if Oregon rebounds, since a close road loss to a contender resonates more if the Ducks stay ranked.
- Notre Dame sits at 2-0 with a 33% chance to run the table per ESPN Analytics; the Oct. 17 trip to BYU is the Irish's best chance to impress the committee before the first CFP rankings are released.
Why it matters: Texas is the committee's likely No. 1 with an 87.7% chance to reach the playoff, but Ohio State remains No. 1 in ESPN's FPI by 0.3 points — meaning the human and computer rankings already disagree on the top team. With six SEC teams projected in and the Big Ten at just 16% to send four-plus, strength-of-schedule results over the next two months will decide whether the SEC's bracket dominance holds or collapses.
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