UK FCA Weighs Lifting Prediction Markets Ban — SkimNews
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- FCA has reportedly reached out to prediction market companies about potentially loosening its April 2019 ban on binary options for retail investors, according to The Times.
- Polymarket and Kalshi have been used by UK retail investors through VPNs to bypass restrictions and trade event contracts on sports, politics, and weather.
- Christopher Woolard, the FCA's executive director of strategy and competition, called binary options "gambling products dressed up as financial instruments" when the 2019 ban was imposed.
- Bernstein Research projected in April that the global prediction market industry could reach roughly $240 billion in trading volume in 2026 and $1 trillion by 2030.
- New Jersey officials petitioned the Supreme Court last week to hear their case against Kalshi over sporting event contracts—a legal fight the source notes UK platforms could face if the ban is overturned.
Why it matters: If the FCA overturns the 2019 ban, UK retail investors gain legal access to Kalshi and Polymarket—but also inherit the same legal exposure that has New Jersey petitioning the Supreme Court over Kalshi's sporting event contracts. Bernstein Research projects the global industry hitting $1 trillion in trading volume by 2030.
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