Is Russia stalking satellites which help Ukraine from space? — SkimNews
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- Cosmos 2612, a Russian military satellite launched in April as part of a six-satellite batch, maneuvered from more than 320 km away to within roughly 500 meters of ICEYE-X36 last weekend before LeoLabs reported it had begun moving away by Monday.
- ICEYE-X36 is owned by the US subsidiary of Finnish company ICEYE, which has supplied radar imagery to Ukraine since 2022, and CEO Rafal Modrzewski told Reuters the company repositioned its own satellite after earlier Russian approaches in May, prompting further maneuvers.
- Mark Hilborne of King's College London told Al Jazeera this is the first time a country has conducted such a maneuver against a commercial satellite without consent, noting Russia's past similar moves targeted sovereign military satellites like USA 245 in 2020 and German Intelsats in September 2025.
- Juliana Suess of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs said the distance enables potential data interception or signal jamming, though a kinetic attack would be unprecedented and risks creating space debris affecting everyone.
- In October 2022, a senior Russian foreign ministry official told the UN that "quasi-civilian infrastructure may be a legitimate target for a retaliatory strike," establishing Moscow's previously stated position on commercial space assets.
- Ukraine faces simultaneous pressure on its space capabilities: in March 2025 the US temporarily suspended its access to commercial imagery portals, and last week the White House ordered limits on Starshield, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirming Saturday the military-grade Starlink service is currently unavailable to Kyiv.
- ICEYE's expanded access agreement this year meant faster data delivery to Ukraine, and Suess noted the core question is whether a similarly fast transfer of data could be enabled with a new commercial or sovereign provider if ICEYE-X36 were disrupted.
Why it matters: Ukraine faces overlapping pressure on its satellite-based intelligence: Russia is stalking a commercial radar asset linked to Kyiv while the White House has restricted Starshield access — squeezing overhead capabilities from both adversary and ally. Moscow has already declared that commercial infrastructure supporting militaries is a legitimate target, meaning private satellite companies now operate in a zone where their hardware can be threatened with relatively low escalation cost.
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