College Football Playoff dark horses: Florida, Iowa among preseason long shot threats to crash the party — SkimNews
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- Florida sits at -156 odds to make the CFP after a 4-0 start highlighted by a Week 4 demolition of No. 9 Ole Miss, with new coach Jon Sumrall leading the Gators one year removed from a 29-34 stretch over the prior five seasons.
- UCLA is +500 to make the CFP under first-year coach Bob Chesney, surpassing its 2025 win total in the season's first month with three victories of 14-plus points against power-conference opponents including a 54-3 road win at Maryland.
- James Madison hired former Florida coach Billy Napier — dubbed 'Sun Belt Billy' — to replace Bob Chesney, and the Dukes are 4-0 with wins over Liberty, San Diego State, and Old Dominion at +400 odds to make the CFP.
- Mississippi State is 4-0 with road wins over Minnesota and South Carolina and a Week 4 victory over ranked Missouri, setting up a Week 5 home showdown with No. 7 Alabama at +410 CFP odds.
- Iowa hosts No. 5 Ohio State on CBS after a last-second win at Michigan, with a chance to return to the top 10 for the first time since 2021 at +450 CFP odds.
- Oklahoma State has rebounded from a Week 1 loss at Tulsa with an upset of Oregon and 609 yards at West Virginia under first-year coach Eric Morris, listed at +1200 CFP odds.
- North Dakota State is 4-0 in its first FBS season after winning 10 FCS national titles from 2011 to 2024, tied for third nationally in turnover margin at +8 and a leading candidate to be the Group of Six's CFP representative at +550 odds.
Why it matters: The mass-transfer era has dramatically shortened rebuilding timelines: five of the 10 dark-horse CFP contenders entered 2026 with first-year coaches, and Florida's surge under Jon Sumrall — just one year removed from a 29-34 stretch — illustrates how quickly programs can pivot from afterthought to College Football Playoff contender in the expanded 12-team format.
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