SportsLine model calls Darnold bust for 2026 fantasy football
Get the Sports newsletter
Daily sports — scores, transfers, the storylines from the leagues you actually follow. Free.
- SportsLine's computer model released 2026 Fantasy football rankings for PPR and non-PPR leagues after simulating the NFL season 10,000 times, identifying sleepers, breakouts, and busts ahead of training camps.
- Kenneth Gainwell, a Buccaneers RB with an ADP of No. 99, was flagged as a sleeper after posting 1,023 scrimmage yards and 8 touchdowns in Pittsburgh last year; coach Todd Bowles called him 1B to Bucky Irving's 1A, and the model ranks him ahead of Tony Pollard and Chuba Hubbard.
- Bhayshul Tuten, a Jaguars RB with an ADP of No. 61, was called a breakout after Travis Etienne departed for the Saints, leaving Tuten atop the depth chart following a rookie year of 386 yards and 7 touchdowns plus the fastest 40-yard dash among 2025 draft RBs.
- Sam Darnold was identified as a bust, projected as the QB20 (down from QB14 last year) in a Seahawks offense that ranked third in rushing attempts and 29th in pass attempts; he led the NFL with 20 turnovers and added under 100 rushing yards with zero rushing TDs.
- The model's track record includes calling Daniel Jones' 2025 breakout as the QB10, Jonathan Taylor's 2021 season, Rachaad White's 2023 breakout, Isiah Pacheco as a 2025 bust, and past sleepers A.J. Brown (2020), Derrick Henry (2019), and Davante Adams (2017).
- The top early-round ADP picks are Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Ja'Marr Chase, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jonathan Taylor, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Christian McCaffrey, with Brock Bowers leading tight ends, while the model also projects an unnamed tight end as a top-8 option ahead of Travis Kelce and Sam LaPorta.
Why it matters: Fantasy football drafters gain a data-backed edge from a model with a multi-year track record of correctly flagging breakouts (Jones, Taylor, White) and busts (Pacheco). The Darnold call matters because he was just crowned Super Bowl-winning QB, yet the model says his run-heavy Seattle situation and turnover-prone play cap his Fantasy ceiling at QB20.
