Ukraine backers to vow major support at NATO summit
Get the Geopolitics newsletter
Daily geopolitics — wars, elections, sanctions, the diplomatic moves that move markets. Free.
- NATO's European members and Canada will pledge 70 billion euros ($80 billion) in military aid to Ukraine for this year and next at the Ankara summit, diplomats said Friday (Jul 3).
- The pledge includes 30 billion euros per year from an EU loan plus funds already committed by individual countries, and was approved by NATO ambassadors after Italy initially pushed back on putting it in writing.
- Germany, now Ukraine's largest backer, drove the push to formalize the commitment in a written declaration in order to pressure other European countries to do more.
- Zelenskyy will attend only a Tuesday dinner of NATO leaders, not the main summit the following day — deliberately kept on the sidelines to avoid provoking Trump.
- The summit declaration will state that Iran should never have a nuclear weapon and will call on Tehran to respect freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, where European countries have already moved naval assets.
- Allies will use the summit to demonstrate progress on a 2024 pledge to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, with the declaration calling for a "stronger Europe in a stronger NATO."
- Trump on Thursday called it "ridiculous" for the US to continue its "one sided" relationship with NATO, signaling he remains unhappy with allied spending pace.
Why it matters: With Washington out, Europe is now writing the check — €70 billion annually to keep Ukraine armed. But the choreography of sidelining Zelenskyy from the main summit reveals the political cost: every public move is calibrated not to provoke Trump, whose patience with allies is already visibly frayed. The money is real, but the deference shows who still sets the terms of the alliance.
