Oscar Predictions 2027: Which Studios Have a Real Shot at the Title — and Who Wins the TIFF People’s Choice? — SkimNews
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- TIFF hands out its People's Choice Award on Sept. 20, 2026, with Variety noting 14 of the past 16 winners landed best picture nominations and four — "Nomadland," "Green Book," "12 Years a Slave," "The King's Speech" — won best picture.
- A24 fields the deepest studio bench with three Best Picture contenders: Jesse Eisenberg's "The Debut," Olivia Wilde's "The Invite," and Nathan Fielder/Lance Oppenheim's "You Can See Everything," plus Cannes discovery "Club Kid."
- Netflix makes its clearest best picture push in years with "La Bola Negra," a Spanish queer epic from Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi that tied for best director at Cannes and stars Penélope Cruz and Glenn Close.
- Focus Features defends its People's Choice crown with "Elsinore" (Andrew Scott, Olivia Colman) after last year's "Hamnet" converted the trophy into 8 Oscar nominations and a best actress win for Jessie Buckley.
- Amazon MGM enters Peter Farrelly's "I Play Rocky" — about Stallone pitching the original Rocky — with newcomer Anthony Ippolito as the talk of the fest; Farrelly previously won this prize with "Green Book."
- Apple Original Films brings "Being Heumann," a disability-rights drama from "CODA" director Siân Heder about Judy Heumann's 28-day 1977 sit-in.
- The 99th Oscars air March 14, 2027, hosted by Conan O'Brien; the Governors Awards on Nov. 15 will give honorary Oscars to Glenn Close and Ridley Scott.
Why it matters: The TIFF People's Choice has correctly predicted best picture more often than it hasn't (4 of last 16 winners took the top Oscar), making the Sept. 20 result a real market signal for studios. A24 is the consolidation story of this race — three Best Picture contenders from one studio is unusual — while Netflix's "La Bola Negra" represents its most credible theatrical-style play in years, validated by a Cannes best-director tie and major Spanish-language casting.
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