Red Sea Power Scramble Draws Gulf States, Israel Deeper
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- Crisis Group's "The Horn" podcast (June 29, 2026) features Federico Donelli, author of "Power Competition in the Red Sea," assessing how a new scramble has reshaped the region since the turn of the millennium.
- Gulf states are competing over Red Sea ports, bases, supply lines, and political influence alongside Türkiye and other middle powers, according to the episode.
- The UAE-Saudi rivalry is playing out across the Red Sea region as a central fault line in the competition.
- Ethiopia's push for Red Sea coastline access has reshuffled regional alignments, with the landlocked state seeking outlets to global shipping.
- Houthi attacks have drawn Israel deeper into Red Sea security operations, adding a non-state dynamic to the corridor.
- Europe's weight as a strategic actor is being reassessed in a region the episode describes as shaped by ad hoc coalitions, fluid alignments, and non-state actors.
Why it matters: With the UAE and Saudi competing, Ethiopia seeking coastline access, and Israel drawn deeper by Houthi strikes, the Red Sea corridor is now contested by middle powers alongside any great-power presence. Stability depends on ad hoc coalitions and non-state actors rather than consensus among traditional powers, leaving shipping routes governed by fluid alignments.
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