Carvana stock falls 20% as 2026 guidance trails forecasts
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- Carvana stock fell more than 20% in after-hours trading after issuing 2026 full-year adjusted earnings guidance of $2.7B-$3B, below Deutsche Bank's $3B-$3.2B and Morgan Stanley's $4.45B forecasts
- Carvana beat Q2 2026 estimates with EPS of 42 cents (vs. 41 cents expected) and revenue of $7.38B (vs. $6.91B expected), but total gross profit per unit fell roughly 6%
- Ernie Garcia said Carvana remains on track to sell 3 million cars per year and hit a 13.5% adjusted EBITDA margin by 2030-2035, while Q2's adjusted margin was 10.4%, down 2 percentage points YoY
- Carvana posted record Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $769 million, net income of $513 million (up $205M YoY), and a 38% jump in vehicle sales to 197,325 units
- Carvana expects a sequential increase in Q3 retail units sold — its 10th straight quarter as "the fastest-growing and most profitable automotive retailer" — though it did not disclose how much volume came from new vehicle sales via Stellantis franchised dealerships
Why it matters: Carvana beat Q2 EPS and revenue estimates yet shares fell 20%+ because 2026 guidance trailed analyst forecasts, signaling Wall Street now expects beat-and-raise. The 6% drop in gross profit per unit — even as vehicle sales jumped 38% YoY — points to margin pressure from expansion that could slow progress toward CEO Garcia's 13.5% adjusted EBITDA margin target by 2030-2035.
