Investors are starting to find opportunities in the battered bond market — SkimNews
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- Treasurys attracted $5.4 billion over the past week, part of $12.1 billion that flowed into the broader bond market, according to Bank of America data.
- iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF received $1.14 billion in fresh investor cash over the past month; the fund offering long-dated government-debt exposure has a stated size of $47.3 billion.
- 10-year Treasury note spent Friday flirting with the psychologically important 5% level as oil prices surged and a consumer survey showed inflation expectations remained well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal.
- Michael Hartnett declared “The Price is Right” on the battered Treasury market and said the secular contrarian trade would be adding bonds, citing the market’s worst long-run return in the past 100 years.
- 10-year Treasury yield fell 19 basis points Thursday in a move Nicholas Colas calculated as a three-standard-deviation change for the benchmark security.
- DataTrek Research said the Treasury market was interpreting equity and corporate-debt anxiety about AI capital-spending funding as a sign that incremental issuance would slow, leaving Treasuries with less competition for capital.
- Stocks and bonds sold off together Friday on fears that escalating oil prices would hit both asset classes, departing from their usual inverse relationship; Colas said history points to that correlation returning and still favored a mixed portfolio.
Why it matters: Long-duration Treasury buyers have a concrete reason to press the bid: Treasury inflows reached $5.4 billion last week, while Colas says the market read AI funding angst as an incremental-issuance slowdown that reduces competition for capital. That supply argument reinforces renewed appetite for government debt over corporate paper.
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